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What's going to be interesting, IMAO, is how the South jumps, both in terms of primaries and the actual presidential race.
Presidential-race-wise, the South has not solidly gotten behind a Democrat since Carter's first run for the office. During his second run for the job, he only took his home state. Before Carter, you have to go back to Kennedy. (I do not count Wallace, and neither should you.) It's going to take a really charismatic Democrat to sway that... mind you, depending on who get the Republican nomination, that might be quite easy.
Primary-wise, it's going to be real fun. There are a ton of "good-ol'boy" Democrats who are, well, basically, fucked. A bunch of 'em are too racist to vote for Obama, won't vote for Hillary because she's a Yankee now (well, more then she's ever been), which leaves... Edwards? He should do well, but you never know. I know several people who say they wouldn't vote for him at all, but they can't really articulate why. Something about him turns them away. Of course, Hillary has some good poll numbers here in South Carolina, but the poll I'm looking at was before Oprah was stumping for Obama here in this state.
On the Republican side of things, Guiliani is _fucked_. While he's tied in a recent poll here in South Carolina, he is head and shoulders ahead of every other candidate in the "would never ever vote for" category. Fred Thompson, senile fuckwit that he is (and latecomer to the race) has damn near equal popularity and not even a tenth of the local hatred at Mr. 9-11. And there's a lot of undecideds.
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Yup, that's going to be very interesting. Personally, I think this is the year the South as a very united block starts to fracture and the Repug coalition crumbles further.
On the Presidential race: If Obama or, to a lesser degree, Edwards is the Democratic candidate, I believe Florida, New Mexico, The Carolinas (North more than South), Colorado and possibly even Virginia and Tennessee, could be in play, as they say. If it's Hillary, I think it'll be basically the same template as 2000 and 2004, though with better chances. With your local knowledge, what's your thinking on South Carolina presidential-wise?
On the Primaries: I don't know what it is with Edwards either, but possibly it could be an effect of the Repug "pretty boy" and "trial lawyer" smears. Gonna be interesting to see what happens from New Hampshire on through South Carolina and Florida, leading up to February 5th. Regarding the Repugs, I think a lot depend on New Hampshire in a few days. Them Granite Staters are unpredictable.
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Presidential-wise.... honestly, the state is probably going to go Republican. It's gone Republican in 10 of the last 11 presidential elections (the exception being Carter). That's all the way back to 1964, so you've got a couple generations of impetus towards going Republican.
However, it's going to depend on who gets the nomination. A lot of the locals do not like Guiliani. If he somehow ends up with the nomination (unlikely at best unless both Huckabee's and Romney's campaigns implode), he's going to have a hard time playing up to SC voters. (He might do better with the large quantity of retirees in Florida though.)
That being said, probably the best chance for SC to swing Democrat is if Romney gets the nomination. You can't swing a dead cat without hitting a church in this state, and while Huckabee would do well here, that's because he's a Southern Baptist. (If Huckabee gets the Republican nomination, he will probably end up owning the South.) Romney's Mormonism is.... well, not work for him as well down here as it will up North.
Mind you, I also tend to think that if Hillary gets the nomination, it doesn't matter who the Republicans end up running... she'll lose.
All prognostications with a no money back lack of guarantee.
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